Oliv 's blog

Referendum

1. Who has voted no ?

To answer this question, i am comparing the vote on this referendum and the vote on the first balot of the last presidential election.

First, the number of voters is approximately the same. Twenty eight millions four hundred ninety eight tausend voted in 2002, twenty eight millions two hundred fifty seven tausend in 2005.

In 2002, five millions four hundred seventy one tausend voted for Le pen or Megret. It's logical to think, this people voted against the constitution at the last election.

The vote against the constitution can too proceed from the extrem left. One million six hundred thirty tausend voted for Laguillier, One million two hundred ten tausend for Besancenot and one hundred thirty two for Gluckstein. So the vote for the extrem left attained 2 millions nine hundred seven two tausend.

In 2002, chevènement was too applicant for republic's presidency. He has seduced one million five hundred eighteen tausend voters with a republican speech. It's logical to think, this voters voted agains the constitution.

Jean Saint Josse gathered one million two hundred four tausend voters. Jean saint Josse is a defender of the hunt and the tradition. That's why, he had ever been opposed the policy of bruxelles. A lot of his electors vote probably against the constitution.

The communist party was resolutely engaged against the constitution during the campaign. Nine hundred sixty tausend french people voted for them.

If we sum all this numbers, we reach the number of Twelve millions four hundred fourty nine. The total for the no was about fifteen millions four hundrer forty nine.

If we add votes for Taubira and the catholic of UMP Christine Boutin. The total is of thirteen millions one hundred twenty four tausend.

Fifteen millions four hundred fourty nine tausend voted no at the last election.

So we must deal yet two millions three hundred twenty five millions votes.

Now, three years ago, four million six hundred ten taused voted Jospin.
If we suppose, one half of PS electorate voted against constitution, we reach the total of people who voted no.

2. My opinion

This vote against the constitution is probably a vote, we can bring nearer of the last presidential election. In fact, Conservatism and extremism are very often a consequence of a crisis. People voted no because they don't trust the future. So this vote is not an expression of the french exception but reveals a general mind.